Sunday, August 19, 2007

Slim to None

Those are my officially calculated chances of American Idol hopefuls receiving a golden ticket to move up in the try-outs.

I can only do four math type things with any sense of confidence: add, subtract, multiply and drug calculations. I'm not so sure with my division skills because sometimes, with word problems, such as "If there are 6000 people trying out and only 40 will move forward, what percentage will get a ticket?", I have no idea what number should go where. I came up with 0.006.

So, as a matter of logic, I was not surprised that my extremely multi-talented niece (singing, dancing, acting and writing) did not move forward in the competition.

But as a proud auntie, I want to go snatch someone bald and ask where they left their brains yesterday.

Thor sez: It's not fair. I practiced my remake of Stray Cat Strut until I was purrfect, but they said only humans could audition. Like Morris the Cat isn't an American Idol!


Anonymous said...

It's a ratio thing, 6000:40 - and simply put would be 150:1 - but that is not how it is done; so someone specializing in Finite Math or Statistics or a good bookmaker could tell you the odds. Look at it this way: she was spared going before Simon so her confidence and psyche should be in tact to try again!

jaz said...

Well, yeah, but 150:1 and Janet Lee's guess-timate of 0.006 are pretty darn close to one another in meaning.

Essentially, she calculated odds for and the 150:1 represents the inverse.

p = n/N

p = 40 / 6000

p = 0.0067

Just as 6000/40 = 150/1.

Sunnie (Kaytee) said...

I'm sorry about your niece. Jay tried to convince me to try out. He thinks I sing wonderfully. And sometimes I do. But hello...I couldn't even try out for Wheel of Fortune becaue there were too many people there. NO way would I try out for AI. Plus, I'm too old. LOL

Anonymous said...

Well, yeah, Jaz, I wasn't being critical of Janet's math and you are right: 0.006 is essentially the same thing; but even doing the math is not how they come up with the odds. So, call your bookmaker and see what it would be. And, P.S., according to the PC (NOT), 8,000 registered, so we are still off. Think the niece was spared rather than rejected. Also love the way you jumped to the defense, you are a keeper!

JanetLee said...

Ah, well. I think poor Jason was thinking more along the lines of trying to make me feel better about my calculation skills by showing that I had done it correctly, although differently than our dearly beloved (perhaps Auntie) Anonymous.


Anonymous said...

So much for anonymous!